https://www.studyblue.com/notes/note/n/background--research/deck/14357027


When is the last time you said, "I knew that was going to happen."  or "I knew it all along."   Did you really know it all along though?  It's easy for us to say after the fact that we knew it all along.  For example you see a rain cloud and although you aren't really sure if it will rain or not, a little while later (when it rains) you say to yourself, "I knew it would rain!"   The rain cloud however could have passed and cleared up without rain and nine times out of ten you would have said "I knew it wouldn't rain."  This is a simple example of hindsight bias.  We basically inflate our prediction.  Maybe you're at the high school football game and you're really not sure who is going to win, maybe you're 60/40 that your high school's team will win, and when they do win you say, "I knew we'd win."  The fact is though, that you didn't know your team would win.  


Please click on the link and read the article 



I Knew It All Along

Tomorrow in class be ready to discuss what hindsight bias is, the downfall to hindsight bias, and one way that hindsight bias can be prevented.  I also want you to either think about a past time that you suffered from hindsight bias or come up with an example of what hindsight bias might look like.

I look forward to discussing in class tomorrow!


 



https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-big-questions/201204/did-you-know-it-all-along